Myanmar's Ethnic Minorities Renew Conflict

Shortly after Myanmar's current military junta sized power they sought to negotiate a cease fire with the various ethnic groups in the north of the country which had been fighting Burma's various governments for decades. What the junta sought wasn't just stability but financial enrichment from the illicit trade these groups did in arms, drugs and precious stones with China Myanmar's largest trading partner being the obvious benefactor of these cease fire agreements with these northern insurgent groups. But all that has changed with the junta desperate need for legitimacy from the international community. Its their belief that by holding elections which are to take place next year Myanmar's military junta will recognized by the worlds governments and no longer be seen as state which exists outside of international political norms.

In August the tenants of the cease fire agreements were changed with the government announcing that all weapons held by these various would be turned over to the military while the fighters would be incorporated into the Myanmar army. None of the groups involved were willing to comply. With information provided by the Chinese government Myanmar's army with the backing of its police force raided a an arms factory which was suspected of being a front for a drugs operation. Thus setting off the Kokang Incident which allowed the junta regain control of Northern Shan state. With renewed conflict almost 30,000 refugees fled into Southern China.

Myanmar's military regime has demanded that the insurgent groups with which it agreed ceasefires in the late 1980s and early 1990s hand over their arms to government control. A deadline set for the end of October has been allowed to pass and discussions between the military and two main ethnic armies, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army
Eastern Shan State) (NDAA), are reportedly continuing.

Myanmar would also allow the these groups to form political parties to contest next years elections but given the junta's past history of dealing with opposition parties especially Aung San Suu Kyi whose National League for Democracy won 392 of 492 seats in the last openly contested election and then never allowed to assume power thanks to repression by State Peace and Development Council(SLORC)eventually leading to the house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi and the complete suppression of all independent political parties in Myanmar.

Given the instability of the region any return to armed conflict between the Myanmar Military Junta and the Northern Ethnic groups could lead not only to instability within Myanmar but spread to Laos, Thailand and Southern China.