Saturday, December 28, 2013

Could Shin Abe's visit to Yasukuni Shrine result in armed conflict with China?

That's a question that should be asked given the state of diplomatic  relations between the world's second and third largest economies.

Simply stated Shinzo Abe's visit to Yasukuni Shrine wasn't meant as his way of praying for peace and non aggression the purpose was to show China's leaders that no matter how much they complained about Japanese foreign or military policy, he Abe was going follow his beliefs which are strongly nationalistic.
Already-frayed ties in the region will be further damaged by what Abe claimed was a pledge against war, but what one-time victims of Japan’s aggression see as a glorification of past militarism.
Abe’s forthright views on history—he has previously questioned the definition of “invade” in relation to Japan’s military adventurism last century—have raised fears over the direction he wants to take officially-pacifist Japan.
“His ultimate goal is to revise the (pacifist) constitution,” said Tetsuro Kato, professor emeritus at Tokyo’s Hitotsubashi University. He is “arrogant and running out of control”.
He questioned the meaning of invade?  When one nation uses its military to take control of another country without provocation that's usually summed up in the word invasion. Shinzo Abe isn't alone in these types of revisionist beliefs a majority of the members of his party the Liberal Democrats  share his views on history.

He sent shock waves around the region when he went to pray at Yasukuni Shrine on Thursday, the anniversary of his coming to power and just days after approving the second consecutive annual budget rise for Japan’s military.
Partly, the money will be used to buy stealth fighters and amphibious vehicles intended to boost Japan’s ability to defend remote islands, the government said, citing fears over Beijing’s behavior in a row over the sovereignty of an East China Sea archipelago.



Japan and China have been at odds over the Senkaku Islands since the 1970's when the prospect of large amounts of natural gas and oil might be present in the waters surrounding the islands.  It was never overt just a quiet diplomatic  dispute.   That all changed in 2012 when the former governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara proposed  the creation of a private fund to purchase the islands from their private owners.  Because Shintaro Ishihara is an ultra nationalist and a  racist his proposed purchase of those islands set off a firestorm of protests from the Chinese government.

What followed was attempts by  nationalists from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan to land on the islands claiming them as their nations  sovereign territory.  In September of that year the Japanese government announced the purchase of the islands from their private owner and nationalized them in bid to keep nationalists from the various nations claiming the islands from landing on them.

China's response.  The government began sending Coast Guard ships into the waters around the islands along with over flights by military aircraft. As a counter move Japan has increased its own Coast Guards presence in the area along with the repositioning of Ground Self  Defense Forces equipment and personnel to Kyushu and Okinawa.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to return Japan to its glorified past when it wasn't just an economic power but a military one as well.  Here's the problem Abe views this past through rose colored glasses failing to acknowledge the harm caused by Japan's imperialist adventures in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Could there be armed conflict between Japan and China? Sure anything is possible but its more likely to take the form of those which occur between North and South Korea if they happen at all. Both sides would lose in any military action taken by the other as it would not only disrupt their economies but the social fabric of both nations.









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