Baltic tensions rise as NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania

 NATO fighter jets have shot down an unidentified drone in Lithuanian airspace for the first time, while a Russian warship fired flares at a Danish military helicopter in a separate Baltic Sea incident. The back-to-back encounters have heightened security concerns across Europe and fueled accusations that Russia is growing increasingly reckless on NATO’s borders.

The Baltic States in Putin's shadow

The Baltic states regained independence more than 30 years ago. Now, Russia has them looking over their shoulder, again. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has left many people wondering whether Russia will set its power-hungry sights on the Baltic states, once more. "There’s only one enemy and that’s Russia," says Estonian national Ain Tähiste, summing up his views on the issue in a sentence: "Latvia, Finland, Sweden - and on the Baltic Sea Poland, Germany, Denmark," he continues, "they’re all friends, but not the Russian neighbor.” "It’s naïve to think Russia’s far away," he adds.

Why the Suwalki Gap plays a cricial role in NATO's conflict with Russia - NATO General Breedlove

The Suwalki gap is a narrow strip of land stretching between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia and Belarus were to successfully invade and close it, the Baltic NATO-trio of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would be cut off from its allies to the south. DW's Teri Schulz talks about this with retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove.

How Russia could cut NATO off from the Baltic states | DW News

 

The Suwalki gap is a narrow strip of land stretching between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia and Belarus were to successfully invade and close it, the Baltic NATO-trio of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would be cut off from its allies to the south.

War in Ukraine stokes fears in Baltic states

The war in Ukraine is being viewed with particular fear in the tiny Baltic states. Like Ukraine, they were once part of the Soviet Union and fear Russia might try to annex their territory too.

SIx Other Countries Putin Might Have His Eye On

There several other countries of the former Soviet Union large Russian speaking populations which like Crimea Vladimir Putin use the threat of harm against those people as a reason to annex them into Russia.

 

Eastern Ukraine

The most immediate, alarming question is whether Putin has sights on pushing into the tinderbox of eastern Ukraine — heavy with the ethnic Russians he claims to be protecting and industrially vital to the Ukrainian economy.

Russia has said that it has no designs on the Ukrainian mainland. But it has put 20,000 troops, heavy armor and aircraft on the Ukrainian border, raising serious concerns at the Pentagon, U.S. officials said Thursday. One Pentagon official told NBC News: “It’s like they’re on a hair trigger.”

Moldova and Kazakhstan

Russia experts say these are the next two countries to watch. Neither is part of NATO, which guarantees that it will defend against an attack on any of its member states.

Moldova, a sliver of 3.6 million people between Ukraine and Romania, has a rebellious region of Russian speakers called Transnistria that considers itself independent but is not recognized by the rest of the world.

Russia already has a small contingent of so-called peacekeepers there, looking after old Soviet weaponry. The president of Moldova warned Russia this week not to try anything.

“The Moldovan government has tremendous concern right now about what the situation in Ukraine is going to mean for them,” said James Goldgeier, dean of the School of International Service and American University.

Kazakhstan, which sits between Russia and China, has a large percentage of ethnic Russians — roughly a quarter.

The president there, Nursultan Nazarbayev, is a strong advocate of Kazakh sovereignty but has “played both sides of it,” Pomeranz said. Last week he told Putin over the phone that he understood Putin’s logic in Ukraine.

As Kazakhstan has strengthened its national identity in the two decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, some ethnic Russians have come to feel that their status and their role in the country’s affairs have been diminished.

The Baltics

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all members of NATO, and are sufficiently anxious about Russia that Vice President Joe Biden made a trip to Lithuania this week to reassure leaders there. The defense minister of France is headed to the region on Friday to talk about ways to boost their security.

Russia made waves on Wednesday when an official expressed concern for the large minority of ethnic Russians in Estonia, the same justification it gave for invading Crimea.

Biden told the president of Estonia that the U.S. may conduct military training exercises in the region. The United States has already added fighter jets to patrol the skies over the Baltics.

Putin has made clear, and signaled again in a defiant speech on Tuesday, that he is deeply irritated by NATO’s expansion to the east. By menacing the Baltic states, he may think he can sow doubt about “whether their membership is worth what they think it is,” Goldgeier said.