Friday, January 1, 2010

Attacks In Pakistan

For years the American government has pressured Pakistan's government to attack the Taliban and other militants who have taken refuge in the Northwest Frontier Provence which borders Afghanistan. Over the last 10 years Pakistan's army engagement of these militants has been erratic. There have been full scale attacks, full scale retreats and peace treaties all of which have led to nothing. In February of 2009 the Pakistani government reached agreement with the Taliban operating in the Swat valley to institute Sharia Law in exchange for ceasing operations. That lasted until May after repeated treaty violations by the Taliban. Pakistan faces two problems of its own making: One the creation of the Taliban by the Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) Two: The dispute over Kashmir with India.
ISI has in the past fully supported the Taliban with money, training and arms. Western intelligence services believe that many within the Service have allied themselves with the Taliban. Because of this it has been difficult for Pakistan's military and police to maintain any semblance of civil order. The emergence of the Taliban as regional power is just the continuation of a governance problem that has existed since the partition of India in 1947 which created Pakistan. At that time the central government decided that the Northwest Frontier Provence along with North and South Waziristan would be semi-autonomous regions effectively placing them outside of government control.
Kashmir is Pakistan's other problem. Kashmir at the time of partition was considered an independent principality giving its ruler the 2 options become part of either Pakistan or India or become an independent nation. Kashmir's ruler at the time didn't make an immediate decision. It was assumed that if Kashmir didn't become an independent nation it would be absorbed by Pakistan. Without a timely resolution of Kashmir status Pakistan started a guerilla war to "encourage" the Maharajah to make the correct decision. Instead the Maharajah turned to the British for assistance and Kashmir would not remain a single entity but be divided among three nations India, Pakistan and China. In the ensuing years Pakistan and India have fought two wars and have numerous small unit engagements all over who controls Kashmir. Pakistan hasn't helped its self much in this area either as the ISI helped to create and train militants who have battled India for control of Kashmir. Because of this there is little trust between the two nations which have large portions of there armed forces stationed on the Line of Control
With most of its forces facing India and unwilling to reposition them for the fight against the Taliban Pakistan is faced with a problem it is unable to resolve. Either the government in Islamabad comes to some agreement with India over Kashmir allowing its forces to be moved from the Line of Control or it continues down the path it has chosen move against the Taliban and other foreign fighters on the Afghan border and then withdrawal thereby allowing the problem to fester and further embolden the Taliban and its allies.

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