Donald Trump and North Korea: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

About a year and a half after Bill Clinton became President the U.S. discovered that North Korea had created a nuclear weapons programme.  Alarmed, President Clinton came within moments of ordering a military strike against those facilities.  Fortunately his advisors persuaded him to find another course of action.  Jimmy Carter was dispatched to Pyongyang as an evony of the president in an effort to engage Kim-Jong il in talks on dissuading them from their chosen course.  While not initially successful Jimmy Carter was able to have the North agree to talks with the U.S. and South Korea.    Those talks would become the Agreed Framework in which North Korea would cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons and decommission its heavy water reactor in exchange for a light water reactor built by South Korea to provide electricity to the country. 

While not perfect, the Agreed Framework did for, several years  halt North Korea's attempts to construct nuclear weapons. 

The election of 2000 brought in the Republican administration of George W. Bush and with him came the neocons. A group of conservative Republicans who were quite skeptical of the  Agreed Framework believing that the previous administration had acquiesced to the demands of North Korea and were looking for reason to scrape it.  The attacks on September 11, 2001 would give them the pretext for doing so.  It all came to halt following George W. Bush's axis of evil speech at the State of the Union.

George W. Bush would constitute the Six Party Talks which never managed to deter North Korea from its nuclear ambitions with their first test of a weapon in October of 2006. 

Six tests of these weapons have taken place in the intervening years and no progress has been made on halting the North's weapons programmes.

Donald Trump is now the occupant of the Oval Office and in March made a startling announcement agreeing to a summit with North Korea's Kim-Jong un as early as May of this year.  This is Donald Trump were speaking about. A man who will convey one policy message on Tuesday and by Thursday have a complete reversal.  He's done it on every major policy issue confronting his administration.  From immigration, to taxes, social programmes, health care and numerous other issues.  Just this week the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced there would be new sanctions placed on Russia only to be undercut by Donald Trump who wants to be besties with Vladimir Putin.

One has to wonder given these conditions what will happen.
 He doesn't believe in diplomacy, has no ambassador to South Korea, no Under Secretary for Asian Affairs, the offical in charge of dealing with this issue resigned, the ambassador designate withdrew his name over comments he made about bombing North Korea and has been involved in twitter insult war with Kim-Jong un.  Given North Korea's record on such negotiations and how difficult those can be, one has to believe that Donald Trump, given his short attention span, lack of foreign policy experience, inability to make the difficult decisions and always listening to the last person in the room. These talks are a major recipe for disaster. 

To further elaborate on the issue of policy and advisors.  Remember John Bolton who was recently named Donald Trump's National Security Advisor.  He was nominated for the post of Ambassador to the UN by George W.  Bush and failed to be confirmed by the senate because of his extreme views on foreign policy.  He believes that foreign policy should be carried out through military  engagement rather than actual policy implementation.  John Bolton, in recent op-ed published in the New York Times advocated for a military  attack on North Korea and would like to see America use it armed forces against  Iran.

Six In The Morning Tuesday August 22

James Dresnok: Sons confirm death of US defector to N Korea

James Dresnok, the last known US soldier living in North Korea, died of a stroke aged 74 late last year, his sons have confirmed.

Mr Dresnok's children said he was loyal to North Korea until the end, in a video interview published last week by local news outlet Uriminzokkiri.

After crossing over to the North in 1962 he went to lead an extraordinary life in Pyongyang.

This included a stint as a star in North Korea's film industry.

What did his sons say?

Rumours of Mr Dresnok's death surfaced earlier this year, and the latest video, featuring his sons Ted and James Jr wearing military uniforms and speaking in fluent Korean, is confirmation.

The blue dogs of Mumbai: industrial waste blamed for colourful canines

The group of strangely coloured canines was first spotted on 11 August prompting locals to complain to the local pollution control board

Guardian staff

Tuesday 22 August 2017 06.50 BST

Authorities in Mumbai have shut down a manufacturing company after it was accused of dumping untreated industrial waste and dyes into a local river that resulted in 11 dogs turning blue. 

The group of strangely coloured canines was first spotted on 11 August, according to the Hindustan Times, prompting locals to complain to the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board about dyes being dumped in the Kasadi river, where the animals often swim.

Footage shows the animals roaming the streets with bright blue fur.

“It was shocking to see how the dog’s white fur had turned completely blue,” said Arati Chauhan, head of the Navi Mumbai Animal Protection Cell, told the Times. “We have spotted almost five such dogs here and have asked the pollution control board to act against such industries.”

Grenfell Tower: Council asks survivors to 'bid' against each other for permanent homes

'I never thought I would have to worry about my mum being depressed, inconsolable and suffering from survivor's guilt because she witnessed people she knew jumping out of windows'

• Lucy Pasha-Robinson 
• @lucypasha

Kensington council (RBKC) is facing fresh criticism after inviting survivors of the Grenfell Tower fire to "bid" against each other for permanent accommodation. 

Survivors were able to logon to a website from Monday morning to register their interest in about 100 flats made available at Kensington Row, Hortensia Road and Tavistock Crescent, more than two months on from the tragedy that claimed at least 80 lives. 

RBKC are using a ranking system that allows certain residents priority, including those who lost family in the fire or have a disability. Families with children will also receive higher priority status than those without. 

German footballer Lukas Podolski threatens to sue Breitbart over human trafficker photo

Breitbart London has issued an apology after posting a picture of German footballer Lukas Podolski on an article about human trafficking gangs. The jet-ski photo was actually snapped during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

A lawyer representing German footballer Lukas Podolski said he would take the right wing news site Breitbart to court after it posted an article about human traffickers in Spain with a picture of the World Cup champion riding a jet-ski. 

The article, published on Friday by Breitbart London, was entitled "Spanish Police Crack Gang Moving Migrants on Jet-Skis." It discussed a group of smugglers who charged refugees 5,000 euros ($5,900) to bring them from Morocco to Spain via jet-ski.

The article's main image included a picture of a smiling Podolski flashing a peace sign on board a jet-ski with another man. The picture, which showed Podolski wearing the German national team kit underneath his life jacket, was taken in 2014 during the World Cup in Brazil.

How to sidestep Iran’s film censors (2/2)

Censors at Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance often order directors to make changes to their films – or ban the films outright. In this second article in our series on censorship, award-winning director Abdolreza Kahani reveals techniques he and other filmmakers use to sidestep the restrictions.

If you missed the first article of this two-part series, you can catch up here: "An Iranian film director on the country's censorship laws (1/2)"

Creative ways to bypass censorship

Over the last four decades, Iranian directors have learned to get around censorship by coming up with creative ways to show actions and activities that are banned.

I remember one film in which a young man walked toward his sweetheart to kiss her. They were outside and the camera rotated around them so that when he reached her the couple was hidden by a tree. All you saw was his arms closing – presumably around her. 

Supreme Court suspends 'triple talaq' divorce law

The rule allowed Muslim men to divorce their wives simply by uttering the word 'talaq' three times.

India's Supreme Court on Tuesday blocked the use of a Muslim divorce law until the government frames new legislation, a partial victory for Muslim women who had long argued that the rule violated their right to equality.

Three out of the five judges on the constitution bench ruled against the "triple talaq" law, which allowed Muslim men to divorce their wives simply by uttering the word "talaq" three times.

The judges said the law violated Article 14 and 21 of the Constitution of India, which is related to equality, and protection of life and personal liberty respectively.  times.

Donald Trump Will Handle North Korea All By Himself (Ha Ha Ha)

In the summer of 1994 the Clinton administration seriously considered attacking North Korea's nuclear facilities at Yongbyon to prevent the recovery of raw nuclear material for the development nuclear weapons.  Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and the military strike never came to fruition.   What happened next nearly succeeded in fully ending North Korea's nuclear weapons development. North Korea, South Korea and the United States started negotiations which became the Agreed Framework.  

Those talks resulted in an agreement which stated: South Korea would construct a light water reactor incapable of producing weapons grade plutonium, but provide much needed electricity to the North Koreans.  Just prior to the end of President Clinton's term in office it was discovered that the North Koreans had resumed their pursuit of building and deploying nuclear weapons and the agreement collapsed.   George W. Bush's election didn't lead to further talks with the North and were further soured when in his 2002 State of the Union address accused North Korea of being part of the axis of evil along with Iraq and Iran.

In August of 2003 the Six Party Talks began. With the United States, Russia, North and South Korea China and Japan.   From the start until their discontinuation in 2009.  Even though several agreements were reached, North Korea would violate the terms setting the negotiations back.  It was during these talks that North Korea tested their first nuclear weapon in October of 2006.  Several tests have taken place since then with the  last test in September of 2016.  Analysts believe that North Korea may have as many as eight nuclear devices but are unable to verify that number.


Now Donald Trump in an interview with the Financial Times where he intimated that he would go it alone against North Korea if China refused to influence Kim-Jong un in his pursuit  of nuclear weapons, especially ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S.   To believe that China would abandon North Korea for geopolitical reasons is foolish.  Why won't China harm its relations with North Korea?

Say China decided to fully enforce all the sanctions in place against the Kim's government the Chinese believe the following would happen: Ten's of thousands of refugees would cross the border into Northeast China, it would lose a buffer between it and American forces stationed in South Korea, the reunification of the two Koreas along an economic collapse.  China's Communist Party views this as unacceptable.  


Donald Trump bullying China? Like that's going to happen. Former President Bill Clinton came the closest to reaching an equitable agreement with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program through diplomatic interactions. Not by bluster and bullying.   Donald Trump is immature, narcissistic and lacks intellectual curiosity.  None of his senior advisors have foreign policy experience and none are Korean experts  yet he and they believe China can be bullied into accepting a policy that would act against their national interests.  That will never happen.      


 

North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, China And Why Nothing Will Change

On Friday September 9 North Korea conducted its fifth and largest nuclear weapons test to date.  This test follows the one in January.  In 1994 the Clinton administration discovered that North Korea was working towards the development and construction of a nuclear weapons arsenal.  President Clinton was given several options on best to proceed: One involved a military attack on the North's nuclear facilities and the other was finding a means which would lead to talks between the relevant countries.  What emerged was the Agreed Frame Work: North Korea would decommission its nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons grade material to be replaced with a reactor which would provide electrical power to be constructed by KEPCO

Dealings with North Korea while never easy, the Agreed Frame Work did achieve some semblance of stability on the Korean peninsula.  George W. Bush's election left uncertain the continuance of the last administrations policies or would they pursue their own policy.  In January of 2002 George W. Bush in his State of the Union speech which became as the Axis of Evil speech laid to rest any doubts on how his administration would deal with North Korea when in proclaimed a member of the axis of evil with Iraq and Iran.  With that, North Korea walked away from the talks and stayed away until the Six Party Talks.  These talks proceed in fits and starts finally ending in 2013 with very little achieved.

China was a party to these talks as it was thought, by being North Korea's main political backer they might have some influence over that governments negotiating parameters.  Even when China did apply political pressure it did so with little consequence as the North's government knew that Beijing wouldn't push so hard as to cause the government to collapse and that is the reason nothing will change.

China's communist leaders see a unified Korea as a direct threat to its national sovereignty believing correctly that the country would remain allied with the U.S. leaving  28,000 U.S. military personal on the peninsula.  Additionally any collapse would cause an immediate refugee crises with many North Koreans fleeing into Northeast China something that the government is loath to see that happen as they believe it would destabilize the wider region.    

Sure China's leaders are pissed off at that the North has once again gone the rabbit hole but they aren't going to push very hard to change the status quo.    




     

What Happens If North Korea Conducts Another Nuclear Weapons Test?

That's a question that should not have to be answered, yet given the unpredictability of North Korea the government of Kim-Jong un maybe willing to cross that line in an effort to preserve the Kim's family hold on power.  China North Korea's only remaining allie would be placed  in a rather untenable position continued support or withdrawal support and allow the government to collapse something that China is unwilling to accept as it would mean thousands of refugees crossing into China a circumstance the Chinese consider unacceptable.  But, here we are facing an outcome that benefits no one in North East Asia.


 

North Korea's Next Nuclear Test Could Serve as a Regional Tipping Point

South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned this week that if North Korea conducts another nuclear test, it could prompt the volatile country's neighbors to seek their own nuclear defense. "North Korea would effectively be crossing the Rubicon," she told the Wall Street Journal. 

North Korea's last nuclear test, which took place in 2013, prompted increased Western sanctions against the country and escalating tensions between Pyongyang and its rivals. At the height of the tensions, North Korea temporarily shuttered an industrial complex that it operates jointly with South Korea, harming its own economy in the process, and offered repeated invectives against Seoul and Washington. Now, however, Western officials fear that the next round of tests could prove more threatening to the North's neighbors. 

Back in March, North Korea threatened to carry out a "new form" of nuclear testing. The country's foreign ministry didn't offer more specifics, but some in the west suspect this means they will test out small nuclear devices that could be carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the WSJ, some experts fear that another test — the nation's fourth ever — would enable North Korea to successfully develop such weapons. Most experts believe they have working nuclear weapons, but still lack the capacity to deliver them via rocket.

Remember since 1994 the United States along with Russia, Japan, and South Korea have attempted to negotiate an end to North Korea's nuclear weapons program yet each time an agreement has been reached the North has reniged and returned to nuclear weapons development.

China's Role in Reining in North Korea-video

China's relationship with North Korea is coming into focus as Pyongyang refuses to engage in talks with the international community. WSJ South Korea Bureau Chief Alastair Gale says there may be signs China is taking a stronger line against the isolated nation.

Thai diplomat Kantathi Suphamongkhon North Korea "they see themselves as victims"

Veteran diplomat Kantathi Suphamongkhon had been to Pyongyang several times, and dealt with top officials there. He told Al Jazeera that the last thing the country needs is an an all-out armed conflict.

In one of his trips to Pyongyang as Thai foreign minister a few years ago, Suphamongkhon recalled asking top officials how they would react to a complete withdrawal of US troops from the border with South Korea. 

"There's a lot of misunderstanding going on, if one look into their mind [North Korea's] , they see themselves as victims. So their behaviour is logical from that standpoint." -Kantathi Suphamongkhon, veteran Thai diplomat

The answer surprised him. Pyongyang, he said, saw the idea as an "act of destabilisation" instead of a peaceful overture - a sign that the US is getting ready for a missile strike.

The incident, Suphamongkhon said, illustrates North Korea's "gap of perception" and  level of suspicion, which in turn fuels its antagonistic behaviour towards the US and the world. 

'Cat with no claw'

"There's a lot of misunderstanding going on," Suphamongkhon told Al Jazeera. "If one looks into their mind, they see themselves as victims. So their behaviour is logical from that standpoint."

Although these repeated acts of "belligerence" may frustrate many, Soomin Seo, a South Korean journalist and a scholar, said they are North Korea's attempts to capture the attention of the world, particularly the US. 
"They know that just about the only card that they can use to grab the outside world's attention, specifically the US, is nuclear weapons," said Seo, who visited the North numerous times during Kim Jong-il's regime.

Seo pointed out that there have been "genuine attempts" by the North to engage South Korea and the US. She cited the historic meetings betwen Kim Jong-il and South Korea's Kim Dae-jung, as well as President Clinton's Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

But the North quickly retreated, when President George W Bush said it was part of an "axis of evil" with Iran and Iraq, she said, erasing the trust that took years to build.  

"I don't think they really got over it, and they could not understand why a country as big as the United States would break its promise," Seo said. "North Korea bet on that. That's the only possible future of their economy."