On Friday September 9 North Korea conducted its fifth and largest nuclear weapons test to date. This test follows the one in January. In 1994 the Clinton administration discovered that North Korea was working towards the development and construction of a nuclear weapons arsenal. President Clinton was given several options on best to proceed: One involved a military attack on the North's nuclear facilities and the other was finding a means which would lead to talks between the relevant countries. What emerged was the Agreed Frame Work: North Korea would decommission its nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons grade material to be replaced with a reactor which would provide electrical power to be constructed by KEPCO
Dealings with North Korea while never easy, the Agreed Frame Work did achieve some semblance of stability on the Korean peninsula. George W. Bush's election left uncertain the continuance of the last administrations policies or would they pursue their own policy. In January of 2002 George W. Bush in his State of the Union speech which became as the Axis of Evil speech laid to rest any doubts on how his administration would deal with North Korea when in proclaimed a member of the axis of evil with Iraq and Iran. With that, North Korea walked away from the talks and stayed away until the Six Party Talks. These talks proceed in fits and starts finally ending in 2013 with very little achieved.
China was a party to these talks as it was thought, by being North Korea's main political backer they might have some influence over that governments negotiating parameters. Even when China did apply political pressure it did so with little consequence as the North's government knew that Beijing wouldn't push so hard as to cause the government to collapse and that is the reason nothing will change.
China's communist leaders see a unified Korea as a direct threat to its national sovereignty believing correctly that the country would remain allied with the U.S. leaving 28,000 U.S. military personal on the peninsula. Additionally any collapse would cause an immediate refugee crises with many North Koreans fleeing into Northeast China something that the government is loath to see that happen as they believe it would destabilize the wider region.
Sure China's leaders are pissed off at that the North has once again gone the rabbit hole but they aren't going to push very hard to change the status quo.
Dealings with North Korea while never easy, the Agreed Frame Work did achieve some semblance of stability on the Korean peninsula. George W. Bush's election left uncertain the continuance of the last administrations policies or would they pursue their own policy. In January of 2002 George W. Bush in his State of the Union speech which became as the Axis of Evil speech laid to rest any doubts on how his administration would deal with North Korea when in proclaimed a member of the axis of evil with Iraq and Iran. With that, North Korea walked away from the talks and stayed away until the Six Party Talks. These talks proceed in fits and starts finally ending in 2013 with very little achieved.
China was a party to these talks as it was thought, by being North Korea's main political backer they might have some influence over that governments negotiating parameters. Even when China did apply political pressure it did so with little consequence as the North's government knew that Beijing wouldn't push so hard as to cause the government to collapse and that is the reason nothing will change.
China's communist leaders see a unified Korea as a direct threat to its national sovereignty believing correctly that the country would remain allied with the U.S. leaving 28,000 U.S. military personal on the peninsula. Additionally any collapse would cause an immediate refugee crises with many North Koreans fleeing into Northeast China something that the government is loath to see that happen as they believe it would destabilize the wider region.
Sure China's leaders are pissed off at that the North has once again gone the rabbit hole but they aren't going to push very hard to change the status quo.
No comments:
Post a Comment