Donald Trump and North Korea: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

About a year and a half after Bill Clinton became President the U.S. discovered that North Korea had created a nuclear weapons programme.  Alarmed, President Clinton came within moments of ordering a military strike against those facilities.  Fortunately his advisors persuaded him to find another course of action.  Jimmy Carter was dispatched to Pyongyang as an evony of the president in an effort to engage Kim-Jong il in talks on dissuading them from their chosen course.  While not initially successful Jimmy Carter was able to have the North agree to talks with the U.S. and South Korea.    Those talks would become the Agreed Framework in which North Korea would cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons and decommission its heavy water reactor in exchange for a light water reactor built by South Korea to provide electricity to the country. 

While not perfect, the Agreed Framework did for, several years  halt North Korea's attempts to construct nuclear weapons. 

The election of 2000 brought in the Republican administration of George W. Bush and with him came the neocons. A group of conservative Republicans who were quite skeptical of the  Agreed Framework believing that the previous administration had acquiesced to the demands of North Korea and were looking for reason to scrape it.  The attacks on September 11, 2001 would give them the pretext for doing so.  It all came to halt following George W. Bush's axis of evil speech at the State of the Union.

George W. Bush would constitute the Six Party Talks which never managed to deter North Korea from its nuclear ambitions with their first test of a weapon in October of 2006. 

Six tests of these weapons have taken place in the intervening years and no progress has been made on halting the North's weapons programmes.

Donald Trump is now the occupant of the Oval Office and in March made a startling announcement agreeing to a summit with North Korea's Kim-Jong un as early as May of this year.  This is Donald Trump were speaking about. A man who will convey one policy message on Tuesday and by Thursday have a complete reversal.  He's done it on every major policy issue confronting his administration.  From immigration, to taxes, social programmes, health care and numerous other issues.  Just this week the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced there would be new sanctions placed on Russia only to be undercut by Donald Trump who wants to be besties with Vladimir Putin.

One has to wonder given these conditions what will happen.
 He doesn't believe in diplomacy, has no ambassador to South Korea, no Under Secretary for Asian Affairs, the offical in charge of dealing with this issue resigned, the ambassador designate withdrew his name over comments he made about bombing North Korea and has been involved in twitter insult war with Kim-Jong un.  Given North Korea's record on such negotiations and how difficult those can be, one has to believe that Donald Trump, given his short attention span, lack of foreign policy experience, inability to make the difficult decisions and always listening to the last person in the room. These talks are a major recipe for disaster. 

To further elaborate on the issue of policy and advisors.  Remember John Bolton who was recently named Donald Trump's National Security Advisor.  He was nominated for the post of Ambassador to the UN by George W.  Bush and failed to be confirmed by the senate because of his extreme views on foreign policy.  He believes that foreign policy should be carried out through military  engagement rather than actual policy implementation.  John Bolton, in recent op-ed published in the New York Times advocated for a military  attack on North Korea and would like to see America use it armed forces against  Iran.

Trump 'ready to meet North Korea's Kim Jong-un'

US President Donald Trump is ready to meet North Korea's Kim Jong-un to talk about denuclearisation, officials say.

South Korean national security adviser Chung Eui-yong, speaking at the White House, said Mr Trump would meet Mr Kim by May.

It came after a South Korean delegation held unprecedented talks with Mr Kim earlier this week.

Ties between the two Koreas have improved since their joint participation in the Winter Olympics.

Donald Trump will not meet with Kim-Jong Un as this announcement is merely a distraction.  Donald Trump who knows absolutely nothing about foreign policy, let lone anything about North Korea and the policies that worked in the past. I.E. the Agreed Framework.  

Donald Trump And His North Korea Problem

Bellicosity has always been an integral part of North Korea's foreign policy interactions, especially where the United States are concerned.  They've long sought recognition from America believing it would grant them legitimacy and equality on the world stage.    Kim-Jong un has continued the tradition with the constant stream of incendiary statements and when tensions have reached the breaking point North Korea has arrested American citizens into the hope that concessions which benefit Kim and his government which will insure their continued rule.

Donald Trump in recent weeks has tried to out North Korea and it's ridiculous rhetoric with his own incendiary statements believing they somehow would intimidate Kim-Jong un.  Which was a complete failure.  Particularly  the issue with the Carl Vinson carrier group which Donald Trump claimed was sailing towards the Korean peninsula. But, was found to be heading in the opposite direction towards Australia for planned naval exercises with that country's navy.

The most ridiculous moment came when, after a ten minute dissertation from Chinese Premier Xi Jinping concerning North Korea Donald Trump makes the absurd comment that dealing with Kim-Jong un wouldn't be easy.  Gee you think?  Former President Bill Clinton came the closest to dealing with North Korea and its nuclear programs in the 1990's through the Agreed Framework.

Now that the situation with North Korea has reached a crisis point Donald Trump has summoned all 100 U.S. Senators to the White House for a briefing on the issue.

In an unusual move, the entire US Senate is being called to the White House for a briefing on North Korea.

Washington has become increasingly concerned at North Korean missile and nuclear tests and threats to its neighbours and the US.

The briefing, involving 100 senators as well as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defence Secretary James Mattis, is being held on Wednesday.

China, North Korea's main ally, has called for restraint from all sides.

China's call came in a phone conversation between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump on Sunday.

Mr Xi urged all parties to "maintain restraint and avoid actions that would increase tensions", according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

Donald Trump Will Handle North Korea All By Himself (Ha Ha Ha)

In the summer of 1994 the Clinton administration seriously considered attacking North Korea's nuclear facilities at Yongbyon to prevent the recovery of raw nuclear material for the development nuclear weapons.  Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and the military strike never came to fruition.   What happened next nearly succeeded in fully ending North Korea's nuclear weapons development. North Korea, South Korea and the United States started negotiations which became the Agreed Framework.  

Those talks resulted in an agreement which stated: South Korea would construct a light water reactor incapable of producing weapons grade plutonium, but provide much needed electricity to the North Koreans.  Just prior to the end of President Clinton's term in office it was discovered that the North Koreans had resumed their pursuit of building and deploying nuclear weapons and the agreement collapsed.   George W. Bush's election didn't lead to further talks with the North and were further soured when in his 2002 State of the Union address accused North Korea of being part of the axis of evil along with Iraq and Iran.

In August of 2003 the Six Party Talks began. With the United States, Russia, North and South Korea China and Japan.   From the start until their discontinuation in 2009.  Even though several agreements were reached, North Korea would violate the terms setting the negotiations back.  It was during these talks that North Korea tested their first nuclear weapon in October of 2006.  Several tests have taken place since then with the  last test in September of 2016.  Analysts believe that North Korea may have as many as eight nuclear devices but are unable to verify that number.


Now Donald Trump in an interview with the Financial Times where he intimated that he would go it alone against North Korea if China refused to influence Kim-Jong un in his pursuit  of nuclear weapons, especially ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S.   To believe that China would abandon North Korea for geopolitical reasons is foolish.  Why won't China harm its relations with North Korea?

Say China decided to fully enforce all the sanctions in place against the Kim's government the Chinese believe the following would happen: Ten's of thousands of refugees would cross the border into Northeast China, it would lose a buffer between it and American forces stationed in South Korea, the reunification of the two Koreas along an economic collapse.  China's Communist Party views this as unacceptable.  


Donald Trump bullying China? Like that's going to happen. Former President Bill Clinton came the closest to reaching an equitable agreement with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program through diplomatic interactions. Not by bluster and bullying.   Donald Trump is immature, narcissistic and lacks intellectual curiosity.  None of his senior advisors have foreign policy experience and none are Korean experts  yet he and they believe China can be bullied into accepting a policy that would act against their national interests.  That will never happen.      


 

North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, China And Why Nothing Will Change

On Friday September 9 North Korea conducted its fifth and largest nuclear weapons test to date.  This test follows the one in January.  In 1994 the Clinton administration discovered that North Korea was working towards the development and construction of a nuclear weapons arsenal.  President Clinton was given several options on best to proceed: One involved a military attack on the North's nuclear facilities and the other was finding a means which would lead to talks between the relevant countries.  What emerged was the Agreed Frame Work: North Korea would decommission its nuclear reactor capable of producing weapons grade material to be replaced with a reactor which would provide electrical power to be constructed by KEPCO

Dealings with North Korea while never easy, the Agreed Frame Work did achieve some semblance of stability on the Korean peninsula.  George W. Bush's election left uncertain the continuance of the last administrations policies or would they pursue their own policy.  In January of 2002 George W. Bush in his State of the Union speech which became as the Axis of Evil speech laid to rest any doubts on how his administration would deal with North Korea when in proclaimed a member of the axis of evil with Iraq and Iran.  With that, North Korea walked away from the talks and stayed away until the Six Party Talks.  These talks proceed in fits and starts finally ending in 2013 with very little achieved.

China was a party to these talks as it was thought, by being North Korea's main political backer they might have some influence over that governments negotiating parameters.  Even when China did apply political pressure it did so with little consequence as the North's government knew that Beijing wouldn't push so hard as to cause the government to collapse and that is the reason nothing will change.

China's communist leaders see a unified Korea as a direct threat to its national sovereignty believing correctly that the country would remain allied with the U.S. leaving  28,000 U.S. military personal on the peninsula.  Additionally any collapse would cause an immediate refugee crises with many North Koreans fleeing into Northeast China something that the government is loath to see that happen as they believe it would destabilize the wider region.    

Sure China's leaders are pissed off at that the North has once again gone the rabbit hole but they aren't going to push very hard to change the status quo.    




     

What Happens If North Korea Conducts Another Nuclear Weapons Test?

That's a question that should not have to be answered, yet given the unpredictability of North Korea the government of Kim-Jong un maybe willing to cross that line in an effort to preserve the Kim's family hold on power.  China North Korea's only remaining allie would be placed  in a rather untenable position continued support or withdrawal support and allow the government to collapse something that China is unwilling to accept as it would mean thousands of refugees crossing into China a circumstance the Chinese consider unacceptable.  But, here we are facing an outcome that benefits no one in North East Asia.


 

North Korea's Next Nuclear Test Could Serve as a Regional Tipping Point

South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned this week that if North Korea conducts another nuclear test, it could prompt the volatile country's neighbors to seek their own nuclear defense. "North Korea would effectively be crossing the Rubicon," she told the Wall Street Journal. 

North Korea's last nuclear test, which took place in 2013, prompted increased Western sanctions against the country and escalating tensions between Pyongyang and its rivals. At the height of the tensions, North Korea temporarily shuttered an industrial complex that it operates jointly with South Korea, harming its own economy in the process, and offered repeated invectives against Seoul and Washington. Now, however, Western officials fear that the next round of tests could prove more threatening to the North's neighbors. 

Back in March, North Korea threatened to carry out a "new form" of nuclear testing. The country's foreign ministry didn't offer more specifics, but some in the west suspect this means they will test out small nuclear devices that could be carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the WSJ, some experts fear that another test — the nation's fourth ever — would enable North Korea to successfully develop such weapons. Most experts believe they have working nuclear weapons, but still lack the capacity to deliver them via rocket.

Remember since 1994 the United States along with Russia, Japan, and South Korea have attempted to negotiate an end to North Korea's nuclear weapons program yet each time an agreement has been reached the North has reniged and returned to nuclear weapons development.